June 1, 2026
10:45AM - 11:45AM

Leadership Track

The Psychology of Judging Decisions: How Resulting, Hindsight Bias, and Cognitive Traps Distort Safety in High-Hazard Work

John Grubbs

In petrochemical operations, leaders routinely evaluate decisions made under pressure, uncertainty, and incomplete information. Yet the human brain is wired to judge those decisions after the outcome is known, creating distortions that erode fairness, misdirect investigations, and undermine learning. This session takes a hard look at the forces of resulting, hindsight bias, and decision-making fallacies that quietly shape how safety professionals interpret events—often leading to oversimplified conclusions, misplaced accountability, and lost opportunities for improvement.

Through real-world examples and research-based insights, we will explore why the mind naturally exaggerates predictability, overvalues outcomes, and retrofits logic onto complex operational choices. Participants will learn how these psychological traps infiltrate safety investigations, post-incident reviews, and leadership decision-making—often without anyone noticing. Most importantly, we will focus on how to build bias-resistant processes, improve decision quality, and create a more accurate learning culture in high-risk petrochemical environments.

Key Takeaways 

• How resulting and hindsight bias distort investigations and leadership judgment
• Why poor outcomes are often mistaken for poor decisions—and how to prevent that error
• Practical tools for evaluating decisions as they were made, not as they turned out
• Methods for reducing cognitive bias in EHS reviews, reports, and leadership responses
• A clearer, more accurate framework for decision-making in complex, high-hazard operations